ProdRisk is a model for optimisation and simulation of hydro-thermal systems with one bus bar which has been developed by SINTEF since 1994 . In total about ten versions of the software have been released and it is used by five utilities. The costs to purchase the model vary considerably depending on the required functionality, and one week of training is necessary to learn the software.
ProdRisk uses stochastic dual dynamic programming to solve the optimisation problem. It is mainly used for medium and long-term hydro scheduling on local or regional energy-systems over a 2 to 5 year time horizon: the time-step used for the analysis is user-defined as hourly, daily or weekly. The main stochastic inputs for ProdRisk are inflows to the reservoirs and market prices for electricity, if market prices are modelled externally. The outputs are scenarios for reservoir operation, hydro production, marginal value of water in different reservoirs and a profit distribution. The model can also be used as a market simulator for a one price area system. Only the electricity sector is modelled by ProdRisk and it simulates four technologies: thermal power plants, wind and hydro generation, and PHES.
Previous case studies include assessing various operation strategies for an 11 reservoir, 7 hydro plant system , scheduling hydro systems in an electrical spot market [3, 4], and assessing the optimal utilization of flexible power contracts combined with financial hedging .
- SINTEF, SINTEF, 12th June 2009, http://www.sintef.no/Home/
- Mo, B., Gjelsvik, A. & Grundt, A., Integrated risk management of hydro power scheduling and contract management. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 16(2), pp. 216-221, 2001.
- Gjelsvik, A., Belsnes, M. M. & Håland, M., A case of hydro schedulihng with a stochastic price model, Proc. of the 3rd International Conference on Hydropower, pp. 211-218, Trondheim, Norway.
- Gjelsvik, A., Belsnes, M. M. & Haugstad, A., An algorithm for stochastic medium-term hydrothermal scheduling under spot price uncertainty, Proc. of the 13th Power Systems Computation Conference, Trondheim, Norway, 28 June – 2 July.
- Mo, B. & Gjelsvik, A., Simultaneous optimisation of withdrawal from a flexible contract and financial hedging,Proc. of the 14th Power systems Computation Conference, Sevilla, Spain, 24-28 June.